Given the enormous success of our economy over the past decade, the vast influence of the U.S. culture especially through the internet and satellite television across the globe, and this county’s undisputed military might, it is fair to say that our President occupies the most important political position anywhere. It would be logical to conclude therefore that we would employ only the most solemn and sensible of processes to select our leader. Wrong.
Our constitution is one of the marvels of the ages and has proved to be more durable and effective than any comparable document; it has been the model for dozens of nations. As lawyers we operate under its framework daily; and flawed in its administration as the legal system may be at times, fundamentally it endures and dispenses justice fairly because it rests on such a remarkable base: a document conceived in Philadelphia over 200 years ago.
But, where it all flies apart is in the presidential election process. It is a hodgepodge, jerry-built apparatus which at times seems to be held together with nothing more than rubber bands, toothpicks, and chewing gum. Try to explain the primary system or the Electoral College to a foreigner; you will be met with disbelief. The rules are arbitrary, totally lacking in logic, loaded with inequities, and, somehow, time after time have managed to produce fairly decent presidents. Go figure!
With all that in mind it is fascinating to contemplate the year 2000 contest; it could be the best in decades. An enduring feature of past elections has been the element of surprise – – and we seem to be in the midst of one already. Six months ago the odds seemed impossibly long that George W. Bush and Al Gore would not be the nominees of their parties; each seemed to have extraordinarily uniform support of the Republican and Democratic establishments and were outpacing everyone else in fund-raising and polling.
Whoops! Suddenly Bill Bradley seems to be on the verge of the impossible: there are little indications all over the place that he is a force to be reckoned with. The polls in New Hampshire seem very favorable to him; he seems to attract a much higher percentage of cross-over votes among Republicans than Gore does; there is a palpable surge among important Democrats into his camp; and, perhaps most significantly, he is raising more money than the Vice-President. Gore still has to be the favorite, but it is anything but a foregone conclusion.
John McCain’s prospects are a bit more daunting. Bush has already raised nearly $60 million, and there do not appear to be nearly as many cracks in the Republican wall of support for him as there are on the Democratic side. But it is hardly the slam-dunk it appeared to be a few months back. For one McCain has many of the same qualities Bradley has (even though their politics are oceans apart). He is perceived as being honest, honorable, and moral – – virtually no “baggage.” After eight years of scandals, Americans seem to be giving a high priority to these qualities, and if Bush has tripped at all, it has been his evasiveness about his past. It is very possible that just the presence and apparent impact of Bradley will give a boost to McCain in that it may give courage to hesitant potential supporters.
Then there is the Buchanan/Trump/ Beatty factor; almost inevitably one or more of these people will be in the faces of the front-runners. The most likely of the three is Pat Buchanan and the effect of his candidacy on Bush’s campaign could be profound. Buchanan is a pit bull, and once he grabs an ankle, he never lets go.
It is difficult to picture Donald Trump or Warren Beatty as serious contenders, but each would bring a kind of devil-may-care candor to the campaign, and this could add a major dose of unpredictability (and guilty-pleasures for us) to the process.
The quality of the four major candidates seems unusually high; they are all energetic, the campaigns should maintain a fairly high tone; and the goofiness of the system insures that there are bound to be twists and turns none of us can now anticipate. It is regrettable that the only woman in the melange is Elizabeth Dole who just can’t seem to get airborne but may end up on the ticket as vice-presidential nominee.
So, off they all trudge to New Hampshire to beg, borrow, and often humiliate themselves. It is all part of the irrationality of the system that this tiny state’s primary has often made or broken the campaigns of front-runners. It is pure Americana: the picture of the slick (never sleazy) type, stepping out of a shiny black limousine to accost a retired farmer in his plaid, wool jacket, smoking a pipe, slowly gliding in his rocking chair.
Whoopee! Hang on for the ride.
Our constitution is one of the marvels of the ages and has proved to be more durable and effective than any comparable document; it has been the model for dozens of nations. As lawyers we operate under its framework daily; and flawed in its administration as the legal system may be at times, fundamentally it endures and dispenses justice fairly because it rests on such a remarkable base: a document conceived in Philadelphia over 200 years ago.
But, where it all flies apart is in the presidential election process. It is a hodgepodge, jerry-built apparatus which at times seems to be held together with nothing more than rubber bands, toothpicks, and chewing gum. Try to explain the primary system or the Electoral College to a foreigner; you will be met with disbelief. The rules are arbitrary, totally lacking in logic, loaded with inequities, and, somehow, time after time have managed to produce fairly decent presidents. Go figure!
With all that in mind it is fascinating to contemplate the year 2000 contest; it could be the best in decades. An enduring feature of past elections has been the element of surprise – – and we seem to be in the midst of one already. Six months ago the odds seemed impossibly long that George W. Bush and Al Gore would not be the nominees of their parties; each seemed to have extraordinarily uniform support of the Republican and Democratic establishments and were outpacing everyone else in fund-raising and polling.
Whoops! Suddenly Bill Bradley seems to be on the verge of the impossible: there are little indications all over the place that he is a force to be reckoned with. The polls in New Hampshire seem very favorable to him; he seems to attract a much higher percentage of cross-over votes among Republicans than Gore does; there is a palpable surge among important Democrats into his camp; and, perhaps most significantly, he is raising more money than the Vice-President. Gore still has to be the favorite, but it is anything but a foregone conclusion.
John McCain’s prospects are a bit more daunting. Bush has already raised nearly $60 million, and there do not appear to be nearly as many cracks in the Republican wall of support for him as there are on the Democratic side. But it is hardly the slam-dunk it appeared to be a few months back. For one McCain has many of the same qualities Bradley has (even though their politics are oceans apart). He is perceived as being honest, honorable, and moral – – virtually no “baggage.” After eight years of scandals, Americans seem to be giving a high priority to these qualities, and if Bush has tripped at all, it has been his evasiveness about his past. It is very possible that just the presence and apparent impact of Bradley will give a boost to McCain in that it may give courage to hesitant potential supporters.
Then there is the Buchanan/Trump/ Beatty factor; almost inevitably one or more of these people will be in the faces of the front-runners. The most likely of the three is Pat Buchanan and the effect of his candidacy on Bush’s campaign could be profound. Buchanan is a pit bull, and once he grabs an ankle, he never lets go.
It is difficult to picture Donald Trump or Warren Beatty as serious contenders, but each would bring a kind of devil-may-care candor to the campaign, and this could add a major dose of unpredictability (and guilty-pleasures for us) to the process.
The quality of the four major candidates seems unusually high; they are all energetic, the campaigns should maintain a fairly high tone; and the goofiness of the system insures that there are bound to be twists and turns none of us can now anticipate. It is regrettable that the only woman in the melange is Elizabeth Dole who just can’t seem to get airborne but may end up on the ticket as vice-presidential nominee.
So, off they all trudge to New Hampshire to beg, borrow, and often humiliate themselves. It is all part of the irrationality of the system that this tiny state’s primary has often made or broken the campaigns of front-runners. It is pure Americana: the picture of the slick (never sleazy) type, stepping out of a shiny black limousine to accost a retired farmer in his plaid, wool jacket, smoking a pipe, slowly gliding in his rocking chair.
Whoopee! Hang on for the ride.
– Ken Butera