Several weeks ago we touched the subject of the presidential election, before much was clear. Now that Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, and Arizona have spoken, things are really muddled (delightfully so!).
John McCain has proved to be a tenacious scrapper, much to the chagrin of the Republican establishment, it seems, especially when it comes to campaign finances. His successes in New Hampshire and Michigan were stunning, but his war chest pales when compared to George W. Bush’s as they move into the larger states. McCain attended something like 115 town meetings in New Hampshire. But perhaps the most intriguing development has been his direct confrontation of the Christian Coalition, something no major Republican has dared do in over a generation.
A fascinating scenario has unfolded in one of the most important states, New York, where an arcane set of rules (which apply only to the Republican primary) would have kept McCain’s name off of the ballot in the vast majority of voting precincts until a federal court overturned the rules. The press was opposed universally to McCain’s exclusion as was Rudolph Giuliani of New York City; but the Governor and powerful Republican leaders resisted change. Now that he has won in court, it seems that McCain has an enormous advantage, first, because the free publicity for his strapped campaign has been enormous and, second, because he’s now seen as David tilting with Goliath; and Americans seem drawn to underdogs.
The amazing thing on the Democratic side is that Bill Bradley now has raised more funds than Al Gore, though the party establishment still seems overwhelmingly committed to Gore. Bradley jumped out to a dramatic lead in New Hampshire but somehow seemed to lose ground in the last 15 days before the election (peaked too soon?). He seems to be somewhat rudderless, and his health issue has clouded things.
Still there seems to be an enormous ground swell supporting Bradley (his successful fund-raising is pretty good evidence) as there is for McCain. In fact the campaigns of Bradley and McCain may be feeding off of each other in that each is an attractive candidate, not perceived to be too far out of the mainstream, and each represents the little guy versus the machine. Maybe we should dust off Sylvester Stallone and do “Rocky Runs for President”!
The bet still is that Bush and Gore, battered and bruised, somehow will emerge ahead after the larger states such as New York, California, and Pennsylvania have spoken, but nothing is quite so secure as it appeared last fall. And remember there is always the possibility (likelihood?) that something totally unexpected will occur.
Finally, about Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, Gary Bauer, and Orin Hatch what is to be said? What has driven them to expend all that energy, to say nothing of personal fortunes (Forbes at $85,000,000 or more in the 1996 and 2000 campaigns), when they seemed to have not even an outside shot at it? (And all but Keyes have now dropped out.) This is not to denigrate them, however; it has been good for the system and all of us that they have demonstrated the courage of their convictions and, in doing so, constantly keep the front-runners on their toes.
It just keeps getting better.
– Ken Butera